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Forecasts show Chittenden County could add about 12,000 people; housing targets will guide allocations
Summary
Consultants presented updated population and employment forecasts showing Chittenden County at the higher end of state expectations — roughly 182,000 residents (about +12,000) — and recommended municipal allocations tied to housing targets; the board will consider adoption in September after PAC review.
Jonathan Slason, managing consultant with RSG, presented updated demographic and employment forecasts to the CCRPC board on July 15, explaining the methodology, scenario planning and municipal allocations that will underlie regional transportation and planning work.
Slason framed the forecasts as trend extrapolations aligned with the joint fiscal office's 10‑year horizon and said the state and MPO use comparable controls through 2036. He summarized statewide patterns — an aging population, negative replacement rates (deaths outnumber births) and lower recent international migration — and said counties vary, with Chittenden County expected to fare better than many rural counties.
For Chittenden County, Slason said the forecast baseline shows a population near 182,000, roughly 12,000 more people than today. He emphasized that the primary forecast is trend‑based and does not automatically incorporate policy interventions such as housing targets; staff have produced alternative scenarios that do bake in housing‑target outcomes and those will inform long‑range planning.
Slason described how the 12,000‑person delta is being allocated to municipalities based on existing housing‑target work; he noted a small correction between Essex Junction and Essex in the packet data and said staff will recirculate employment figures to the Planning Advisory Committee and bring the figures back for adoption in September. Jeff Carr and others discussed underlying employment datasets and the limitations of sources such as LEHD and the household survey. Slason said the forecasts will be monitored and updated as more data arrive.
The board did not take final action; staff asked members to provide any additional input by the end of the month and offered to present the numbers to select boards ahead of the September adoption vote.
