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Pflugerville ISD demographer warns of shrinking enrollment under conservative forecasts, urges planning between low and mid scenarios
Summary
An external demographer told the Pflugerville ISD board that enrollment has declined this year and offered three forecasts—low ~23,700, mid ~25,200, high ~25,348—citing housing slowdowns, rising choice options and growing homeschooling and micro‑schooling trends.
An external demographer presented a fall 2025 demographic update to the Pflugerville ISD Board of Trustees on Nov. 20, warning the district faces a challenging enrollment environment and asking trustees to plan between the low and mid forecasts.
"This fall definitely is the most challenging fall that I've experienced," the demographer said, citing a slowing national housing market, higher mortgage rates and increased school choice activity. He reported the district’s enrollment fell by about 476 students this year and that new‑home starts and closings have slowed.
Key numbers presented included 27 actively building subdivisions in the district, roughly 330 homes under construction, about 1,270 vacant developed lots and 16 planned future developments representing about 10,400 future lots. On the multifamily side the presenter said there are about 3,500 multifamily units under construction and roughly 8,000 multifamily units in planning across the district.
Projecting forward, the consultant offered three scenarios for total district enrollment in five years: a low scenario of about 23,700 students, a mid scenario near 25,200 and a high scenario around 25,348. He told trustees the low scenario is driven largely by increased voucher/choice uptake and continuing housing slowdowns.
Trustees pressed for more granular data. A trustee asked for specifics on the calculation of "yield" (students per occupied home); the demographer explained the team geocodes student addresses and compares students to occupied homes in a neighborhood to compute student yield per home and agreed to provide an appendix listing active subdivisions and satellite imagery updates.
Trustees also identified capacity pressure points under different forecasts: Carpenter Elementary and Bowles middle school were cited as areas approaching capacity in the coming years, and Wise High School was flagged as approaching capacity in four to five years under some scenarios.
Trustee Yanez urged balancing realism with optimism: "Can we please manifest some positivity?" she said, asking the board to plan but remain hopeful that macroeconomic shifts could improve enrollment trends.
The demographer recommended the district plan between the low and mid forecasts, continue to monitor housing and voucher impacts, and incorporate detailed, subdivision‑level data into the optimization process. He said the team will provide a detailed appendix of active developments and satellite imagery to help trustees and staff make site‑specific decisions.
What’s next: trustees requested the demographer supply an appendix of active subdivisions and pledged to use the more detailed data to inform the board’s optimization work and any potential facility changes.
