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Legislative Management reviews alternative oil-and-gas revenue scenarios for 2025–27 biennium
Summary
Analysts presented two lower-production oil-and-gas revenue scenarios for 2025–27—one with a 13% production decline and one combining a 13% production drop with a 15% price decline—affecting projected tax allocations for the biennium.
BISMARCK, N.D. — The Legislative Management received a fiscal presentation June 26 on alternative oil-and-gas tax allocation scenarios for the 2025–27 biennium that could materially reduce state revenue under lower production or price conditions.
Adam Mathiak, Senior Fiscal Analyst with the Legislative Council, presented a memorandum comparing the legislative forecast to two lower-production scenarios. The first scenario models a 13 percent decline in oil production to an estimated 975,000 barrels per day at $58 per barrel. The second scenario assumes the same 13 percent production decline plus a 15 percent decline in oil prices, yielding an assumed price of $49 per barrel.
Mathiak told the committee the memorandum shows how those scenarios would alter estimated tax allocations for the biennium compared with the legislative forecast. The presentation did not adopt a single revenue estimate; it compared alternate outcomes to help committee members and staff assess fiscal exposure if production or prices fall below forecast.
The committee did not take formal action on allocations at the meeting; the presentation was informational to inform interim committee budgeting and potential follow-up work.
Next steps: legislative fiscal staff will retain the scenarios for use in interim budget discussions and may present further analysis as committees develop budget recommendations.
