County officials: unemployment edges up; 2023 census shows population rebound

Montgomery County officials presented quarterly economic indicators showing mixed signals: the county’s unemployment rate rose to roughly 3.0% year‑over‑year from 1.8%, while labor force participation increased by about one percentage point, presenters told the County Council’s Economic Development Committee.

"Unemployment has gone to 3% versus 1.8% year‑over‑year," said Frankie Clogston, vice president of research and policy at the Montgomery County Economic Development Corporation, adding that the county remains below the national rate of about 4% and that labor force participation has inched upward.

The briefing also covered real‑estate and venture capital trends. Clogston said the county’s office vacancy rate is about 18.3%, up from 16.3% a year earlier, and that the increase is uneven across submarkets such as Rockville, Bethesda and Kensington. She said the VC picture is uneven largely because a single large 2023 deal created a big year‑over‑year swing; excluding that outlier, the county’s pace this year is about 20 deals.

James Lee, forecaster and demographic research specialist with Montgomery Planning, led a special briefing on population. He said the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 estimates show a rebound after two years of COVID‑era decline. "The story with the population rebound is that we've somewhat gone back to pre‑pandemic trends with more international migration and a bump in natural increase," Lee said, summarizing Planning’s breakdown of births, international migration and domestic migration.

Panelists and council members pressed for more granular data. Chair Natalie Fanny Gonzales asked whether the county has recent income data for inbound residents; Planning staff pointed to an IRS‑based blog by a Planning colleague that found middle‑income households were among those leaving earlier in the decade and said more targeted short‑term analysis is possible but can be volatile.

Workforce composition was a recurring theme. Bill Tompkins, president and CEO of the Montgomery County Economic Development Corporation, noted the county still needs to replace employees and asked whether inbound migrants match the sectors where employers are hiring. "Are they coming into life sciences? Are they coming into technology?" Tompkins asked.

Presenters cited data sources and limits: Clogston said PitchBook supplied VC data for the slides, and staff noted that some administrative datasets (for example, WorkSource Montgomery access to Maryland labor microdata) can be purchased but often come with access or aggregation restrictions.

The committee requested follow‑up material including average single‑family sale prices by neighborhood, more frequent (quarter‑to‑quarter) comparisons alongside year‑over‑year, and a breakdown within the life‑sciences sector separating private and public employment. The session ended with a list of follow‑ups and a plan to return to these questions at future meetings.

The Economic Development Committee adjourned after the presentation and follow‑up requests were recorded.