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JFAC chair and analysts brief State Affairs on Idaho General Fund trends and missed revenue projections
Summary
Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee Chair Sen. Grow and Legislative Services budget analyst Keith Bybee told the Senate State Affairs Committee that late-session tax legislation and unanticipated economic shifts likely contributed to missed revenue projections; per-capita spending rose even after adjusting for population and inflation, and recent increases in education spending reflect legislative additions such as the School Modernization Fund.
Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee Chairman Sen. Grow introduced a Legislative Services Office briefing on Idaho’s budget and revenue on Jan. 28 before the Senate State Affairs Committee.
Keith Bybee, Budget and Policy Analysis Division Manager for the Legislative Services Office, reviewed the structural balance of the General Fund, categorical spending over the past decade, a current budget update and the 2027 General Fund summary, cash positions comparing 2009 to 2026, and how sales-tax revenue is distributed. Bybee said the presentation was accompanied by attachments the Committee would retain with the minutes.
Sen. Ruchti asked how revenue projections had been missed when they were adopted before the 2025 legislative session. Bybee said "there were several tax bills introduced towards the end of last session after the adoption of the projections, which paired with an overlooked economic state, could have accounted for these errors." He added his team ran alternative calculations adjusting for inflation and population growth and still observed notable per-capita change.
Sen. Adams sought confirmation that the Medicaid numbers cited referred to Idaho’s General Fund; Bybee confirmed they did but said he did not have resident-level Medicaid enrollment counts available during the briefing. On education spending, Bybee attributed recent increases to legislative actions that added substantial funds to the public school budget, citing programs including the School Modernization Fund.
The exchange focused on distinguishing one-time and structural pressures on the budget and on which increases reflect policy choices versus population-driven demand. No formal action was taken on budget policy; the briefing provided context for upcoming fiscal decisions.
