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Molalla continues UGB debate as residents urge use of newer PSU population forecasts
Summary
At a continued urban growth boundary discussion, planning staff recommended sticking with the adopted 2022 Housing Needs Analysis to preserve grant timelines and avoid added cost and delay; multiple residents urged the council to instead use the more recent Portland State population forecasts because of concerns about water availability, farmland loss and impacts on out-of-city residents.
The Molalla City Council continued its discussion of a proposed urban growth boundary (UGB) expansion on Jan. 28, with planning staff urging the council to proceed using the adopted 2022 Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) and population forecast rather than commissioning a new Housing Capacity Analysis (HCA) based on the lower 2024–25 Portland State University forecasts.
Planning Manager Dan Zender said producing a new HCA would likely cost roughly $100,000 and push the UGB amendment and associated Transportation System Plan updates into 2028–29. He told the council the city could use the $115,000 DLCD grant already awarded to complete parts of the work but that a new HCA would require more grant funding, additional tribal and public outreach and could lengthen timelines by several years. "If we start using new numbers, the process would... put the new HCA adoption in late 2026, 27... that's likely late 2028, early 2029 finish," Zender said.
Several residents during public comment urged the council to adopt the newer PSU forecasts. Jim Gilbert said the plan based on older forecasts would allow more than a 50% population increase—roughly 5,000 people—and warned about traffic and water impacts: "One of the worst things that could happen would be to have the river dry up," Gilbert said, referencing late-season low flows in the Wallowa River. Connie Derry also urged use of the updated 2024 PSU estimates, saying the river was unusually low this winter and cautioning against tapping every available water source.
Corwin DeMeo and Brian Riurek, both outside-city residents with ties to local community planning organizations, urged continued engagement with affected rural residents; DeMeo stressed the rights of those who pay county taxes but live outside city limits and urged limiting expansion onto farmland. Riurek, while supportive of expansion in principle, encouraged better direct outreach to landowners the city is considering for inclusion.
Council did not take a motion to switch to the newer PSU numbers during the meeting; staff said that a formal motion would be required to change direction. The council’s next procedural steps and grant-application timing will determine whether the city proceeds under the adopted HNA or initiates a new HCA using recent PSU forecasts.
