Carolina demographer: Chapel Hill‑Carrboro enrollment could fall to about 9,448 by 2035

Dr. Dollar, a demographer with Carolina Demography at the Carolina Population Center, told the Chapel Hill‑Carrboro City Schools board at its winter retreat that the district's average daily membership (ADM) has fallen since 2019 and that a preliminary forecast projects continued declines.

"We are forecasting that we will drop to 10,099 total average daily membership by 2030 and that we will drop to 9,448 by 2035," Dr. Dollar said, stressing that "preliminary is the key word." He said the district's PMR 2 count is about 10,758 (a rounding issue between 10,758 and 10,759 was noted in the presentation) and that since the pandemic the district has lost roughly 1,545 students under the PMR 2 measure.

The forecast attributes the largest proportional losses to kindergarten and the lower elementary grades. Dr. Dollar said kindergarten enrollment is down about 28 percent compared with 2019 and that, viewed through cohort aging, the pandemic kindergarten cohorts are now moving through the system and driving declines across other elementary and middle grades.

Why it matters: ADM drives state funding. Dr. Dollar reminded the board that fewer students reduce per‑pupil state allocations and that enrollment shifts translate directly into budget pressure over time. He also noted that births, migration, charter/private‑school growth and homeschooling all feed the forecasted market‑share changes.

Dr. Dollar described the methodology: a weighted grade‑progression model using district PMR 2 historical data, school capacity, age/ethnicity trends, building permits and a 10‑year weighted average of grade‑progression ratios skewed toward recent years. He listed adjustments still to be made in the final model, including more detailed housing‑based growth inputs and market‑share adjustments.

Board members pressed on data limits. A board member asked whether changes in federal immigration policy were included; Dr. Dollar said they had not yet been modeled and that the team is still assessing how recent drops in foreign‑born population may affect North Carolina trends. Another board member asked whether private‑school numbers include residents who attend private schools outside Orange County; Dr. Dollar said private‑school counts shown were only for private schools located inside Orange County and therefore understate all residents who attend private schools elsewhere.

The presentation included school‑level capacity examples: Glenwood Elementary was projected to approach capacity by 2030 while Seawell Elementary was forecast to be substantially under capacity by 2035; the consultant said Phoenix Academy had been held constant in this preliminary run for methodological reasons.

Next steps: Dr. Dollar said the model is preliminary, that the team will ground‑truth housing assumptions and provide an updated full report to Orange County in the spring, and recommended regular annual updates and critical review of assumptions by district staff and board members.

"A forecast is only as good as the assumptions that go into it," he said. "You should, I encourage you to be critical consumers of the forecast."