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Dunedin staff present balanced FY2027 budget and a $3M contingency plan if homestead referendum passes
Summary
City staff presented a balanced FY2027 proposed budget with a 17.8% reserve and outlined a contingency plan that would implement about $3 million in reductions beginning Jan. 1, 2027 if a state homestead-exemption referendum approved in November reduces local property-tax revenue; staff also warned of larger multi-year shortfalls tied to county roll‑downs for services.
Dunedin city staff presented a proposed FY2027 budget on July 21 that is balanced and carries an available reserve of 17.8%, but they said the city is preparing for a possible revenue shock if a statewide homestead-exemption referendum passes in November.
“This is the proposed budget. It is a draft budget. It will change before it is adopted,” City Manager Jennifer Brantley said, noting the package before the commission was intentionally framed as informational. Finance Director Les Tyler told commissioners their review that day was the deepest dive into the proposed numbers before tentative adoption and public hearings.
Tyler summarized the long-range projection the finance team used, saying the city currently projects an estimated $5.65 million shortfall across 2028–2032 if current policies continue. He said the administration is developing a contingency plan that would implement an initial $3.0 million of reductions effective Jan. 1, 2027, whether the referendum passes or not, but with faster implementation if the vote succeeds. “Our goal is to have a reduction of $3,000,000 that would go into effect on 01/01/2027,” Tyler said.
Staff stressed the contingency will likely include a mix of operating and capital deferrals and, in some cases, service-level reductions. Commissioners asked staff to model the specific public impacts of cuts — such as changes to hours or staffing at recreation centers, adjustments to policing and fire contracts, or elimination of particular programs — so the public can see tradeoffs before the referendum and during the public hearing process.
The proposed FY2027 budget reflects several cost-control measures already taken: departments were asked earlier this year to reduce controllable operating costs, finance said those actions yielded roughly $500,000 in recurring savings, and insurance and other one-time changes reduced near-term operating costs. Staff also highlighted a set of capital projects that were moved into later years to balance the FY2027 numbers.
Commissioners repeatedly asked for clear, factual public-facing materials that show what different revenue scenarios mean for services. Several members urged the administration to prepare a short, plain-language fact sheet and visual aids showing the gap that would result if the referendum passes and how cuts or revenue changes would translate into visible reductions in city services.
Brantley said staff will return with a contingency budget and an outline of likely service‑level impacts, along with the requested fact sheet, and set deadlines to produce draft reductions by Aug. 10 so the commission can review options in September before formal public hearings. Tyler said the commission will consider the tentative budget and millage at the July 23 meeting; the first public hearing is set for Sept. 3 and final adoption for Sept. 17.
What’s next: staff will prepare the contingency material requested by commissioners, estimate the referendum’s multi-year impact on items that roll down from county funding (library cooperative support, EMS reimbursements, county contract law enforcement cost), and present a short education packet for public distribution in advance of the fall hearings.
