Oregon agencies warn of an early, long fire season; agencies say severity resources ready but costs are rising

State and committee officials told the Emergency Fire Cost Committee on June 2 that Oregon is entering a fire season with elevated risk after a record-warm winter and a snowpack at about 14% of normal.

Theresa Alcock, a fire planner analyst with the Oregon Department of Forestry, said temperatures from November through April were the warmest on record for Oregon and that statewide snow water equivalent remains very low. "We've had the lowest snow water equivalent along with an early snow melt," Alcock said, and she added that the conditions point to an earlier start and potentially longer fire season. She pointed to an 80%–82% chance of an El Niño developing and persisting through 2026 and noted that analog years 2015 and 2018 showed increased fire starts and growth in July and August.

Alcock also described elevated National Fire Danger Rating System indices in May, including high Energy Release Component values and low thousand-hour fuel moistures, and displayed the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center's outlook showing above-normal potential for significant wildland fire for much of Oregon through September.

Michael Curran, ODF chief of fire protection, said districts have already had early successes with initial attack and that statewide readiness is high: two single-engine scoopers began service June 1, the agency is staging aircraft and crews based on daily conditions, and a new modular multi-mission aircraft (MMA) is expected to be operational by the Fourth of July weekend. "We're planning as if it's gonna be a very bad fire season," Curran said, adding that districts have responded well to early starts.

But Curran warned of an emerging budget pressure. Increasing aviation and firefighting contract costs are outpacing normal inflation, he said: "If we do not see continued investments in our severity budget, we very well could be having to make hard decisions in the next couple years." Committee members and ODF staff discussed the need to maintain severity assets while tracking available cash and legislative tools enacted this year.

The committee heard that early-season fire totals were modest compared with worst-case scenarios: ODF recorded 132 fires burning 432 acres on ODF jurisdiction year-to-date, and statewide totals were about 308 fires for 5,550 acres as of the report. Curran said several large fires so far burned primarily on federal lands and were contained quickly through interagency responses.

The presentation closed with a reminder that long-range forecasts will evolve and that daily weather – winds and humidity – ultimately determines fire intensity and growth. The committee discussed continuing to prioritize severity investments and ensuring logistical support (fuel, staffing) when assets are moved between regions.