Consultant projects 4,700 new housing units by 2040 and a net enrollment decline of about 560 students

Nick Johnson of MD Raer Consulting presented a multi-neighborhood housing and enrollment projection for the La Crosse School District. He said births in the district declined from roughly 667 in 2010 to about 519 in 2023 and described how housing type affects student generation: new single-family homes typically generate roughly 0.32–0.35 students per unit in comparable urban districts, while new market-rate multi-family housing generates far fewer students (about one student per 100 units in recent local examples). Johnson reported the firm projects "just over 4,700 new housing units in the district by 2040," with about 90% of those units as multi-family in the city portion.

Projecting students under current conditions, MD Raer estimated a net enrollment decrease of about 560 students by 2040 (roughly 33 fewer students per year on average). Johnson applied the projection to the referendum’s seven-school model and showed that if the referendum passes the two new/expanded elementary buildings would open near capacity (State Road projected ~425 of 450 capacity in 2027; new Hogan-site school projected ~530 of 550). Board members asked about student-generation assumptions, open-enrollment trends (consultants held most open-enrollment levels constant, with modest growth at the virtual program), and neighborhood turnover methodology. Johnson said the team used 81 neighborhood units, student-address data, permitting data and developer interviews to build student-per-housing-unit ratios.