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Staff spreadsheet: solar plus storage can beat GRDA on modeled lifetime cost but changes risk profile
Summary
Using a live spreadsheet, staff showed solar-plus-storage scenarios (including ITC variations) often produced lower per-megawatt costs over 20 years; members pressed for battery-included cost-per-megawatt calculations and clarified ITC limits.
Staff walked councilors through a live spreadsheet comparing a 3 MW solar build (with varying ITC assumptions and optional land acquisition) to GRDA pricing. Glenn noted the model’s baseline assumptions — a sample land cost of $15,000 per acre and interest rates set conservatively at 4% — and told the group that, under many permutations, solar with available tax credits came out below the modeled GRDA cost per megawatt-year. He summarized the spreadsheet result: "Even with the land cost in there... it's still below that cost."
Councilors asked for battery costs to be explicitly integrated into per-megawatt calculations and for the assumptions behind the 20‑year savings projection (staff cited "over $11,000,000" avoided versus the market across 20 years under a modeled solar-plus-storage case). Members also pressed for realistic worst-case projections (e.g., if solar assets fail and the city must buy full replacements in the market) and asked staff to run scenarios with 30%, 40% and a potential 60% ITC where domestic-content rules apply. Staff emphasized the model can be adjusted and will be returned with clearer battery cost-per-megawatt estimates.
Provenance: topicintro SEG 782, topfinish SEG 1065
