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AC Transit warns of looming $200 million shortfall and possible service cuts; urges support for regional measure

Alameda Transportation Commission · July 23, 2026
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Summary

AC Transit officials told Alameda commissioners the district faces a projected $200 million deficit over four years and warned of up to 16% service reductions and potential layoffs without new sustainable funding, urging support for Senate Bill 63 on the November regional ballot.

AC Transit officials told the Alameda Transportation Commission on Wednesday that the district faces an acute operating shortfall that could force service cuts, layoffs and route reductions without new revenue.

"When the cost of running our buses rises faster than the revenue supporting it, the result is a fiscal cliff," Steven Jones, AC Transit director of legislative affairs and community relations, told the commission. Jones said federal pandemic relief funds have been exhausted, regional sales tax growth has slowed and operating costs have increased—fuel up 28%, parts up 14% and bus procurement costs up about 35%—producing a projected $200,000,000 deficit over the next four years and a potential annual funding gap of roughly $50,000,000 beginning in 2027. He said the district's share of a state bridge loan is $55,000,000 and that the loan is a temporary fix that must be repaid.

AC Transit and city staff described a contingency service plan intended to protect the agency's primary route network while planning for reductions in span and frequency. "Without long‑term sustainable funding, service reductions of up to 16% are unavoidable," Jones said, adding the plan could lead to potential layoffs affecting as many as 300 employees. Planner Owen Kristofferson said the contingency approach prioritizes equity‑priority and high‑ridership trunk lines—such as Alameda's 51A—so as to preserve essential connections even under constrained budgets.

Jones and Kristofferson urged commissioners and the public to support a regional ballot measure, known in staff briefings as Connect Bay Area/SB 63, which would ask Bay Area voters to approve a 14‑year, half‑cent sales tax estimated to generate roughly $980,000,000 annually for Bay Area transit operators; AC Transit would receive an estimated $52,000,000 per year under that scenario. Commissioners asked for more detail on how Measure BB funds interact with SB 63 and pressed AC Transit staff to provide a written breakdown. AC Transit said it will continue community outreach and return with more specifics and Title VI equity analyses as the Board of Directors considers the contingency plan in August and sets public hearings in October.