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Analysts explain consensus forecasting, per‑capita metrics and caseload work groups
Summary
OFM and caseload forecasting staff described how per‑capita metrics and technical work groups produce maintenance‑level and caseload projections used in the four‑year outlook; they emphasized consensus among agency, legislative and OFM analysts.
Staff described the consensus forecasting process used to produce caseload and per‑capita projections that feed into maintenance‑level calculations in the four‑year outlook. Robin Williams (OFM) explained that per‑capita or “per cap” measures isolate changes in unit cost from caseload growth in programs such as Medicaid.
"Per cap is ... per capita cost," Williams said, describing the concept as a way to separate caseload changes from unit‑cost changes when forecasting health care and other program spending. Staff said the Caseload Forecast Council, OFM, and legislative staff participate in technical work groups that develop growth factors and per‑cap assumptions, and that those assumptions are applied across categories in the outlook methodology.
Members asked for more detail about which technical staff sit on work groups and how growth rates are developed; analysts said they would provide follow‑up material showing work‑group participants and the derivation of growth factors.
