Planning staff says draft EOA shows need for 755 acres and three large-lot industrial sites

Planning staff presented a draft Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) and told the Prineville Planning Commission it sets the city’s land need for the next 20 years. “The EOA is economic opportunities analysis,” the Director said, explaining the document compiles employment and population forecasts and builds a land-need estimate to inform updates to Chapters 2 and 5 of the comprehensive plan.

Staff said the EOA does not itself change zoning or expand the urban growth boundary but provides the justification needed to do so later. Using recent development updates — notably the conversion of part of the Apple site from vacant to developed — the draft finds the city needs approximately 755 acres overall and identifies a shortfall of three large-lot industrial sites (the draft shows a need for nine large sites and inventory of six). The Director warned the document is likely to be challenged on the need and said the city will notice the Department of Land Conservation and Development for 35 days before council action.

The presenter contrasted categories in the inventory: commercial demand was shown at about 85 acres with 111 acres available (no expansion needed), and small industrial demand at about 46 acres with roughly 94 acres available. By contrast, large-lot industrial supply lags demand; staff said some counted parcels appear effectively unavailable because owners do not intend to sell or develop them. The Director said rezoning some parcels could shift available acreage but stressed large-lot needs are driven by target-industry constraints.

Staff recommended forwarding the draft to city council for formal consideration rather than holding a separate commission public hearing; council will conduct the public hearing and the ordinance process. The commission received the draft and asked staff to circulate the finalized document when ready.