Montgomery County planning presents retail market snapshot: 36 million sq ft, 68,000 jobs

Carrie McCarthy, division chief for research and strategic projects at Montgomery Planning, opened the briefing with national and county-level indicators designed to inform a new retail market study. She said household retail spending in the county totals roughly $13 billion and that retail uses range beyond traditional stores to include childcare and health clinics that occupy ground-floor space.

"Retail comprises nearly 36,000,000 square feet," McCarthy said, and "retail employs over 68,000 people"—data she said were drawn from consultant work preparing an update to the county's 2017 retail market study. McCarthy told the committee that e-commerce is back near 2020 levels nationally (about 16'17% of sales), that consumer sentiment remains volatile, and that county submarkets show very different vacancy patterns, with Rockville Pike identified as a central retail spine.

The planning presentation emphasized that retail analysis must be neighborhood- and submarket-specific. McCarthy flagged "shadow vacancy" (spaces technically listed as available or in informal circulation) as an early warning sign of additional vacancies to come and said the county is contracting with ESI to provide a deeper data dive. She recommended the committee treat retail topics separately from prior office-to-housing work and use the study to identify programmatic supports and targeted places for intervention.

The committee asked about data timeliness; McCarthy said much of the underlying data are from 2024 and 2025, and that rapid economic shifts make the study a priority for updated analysis. The session closed with agreement that staff will compile the comments and return with a staff report and follow-up work sessions.