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City Observatory economist says investment-grade analysis predicts large toll diversion and lower traffic
Summary
Joe Courtright told the commission that an investment-grade analysis he obtained shows tolling would reduce I‑5 Bridge traffic from about 127,000 to 77,000 vehicles a day and argued that most of the project cost funds freeway widenings and interchanges rather than the bridge itself.
Joe Courtright, an economist with the City Observatory, told the commission during public comment that the project’s traffic and revenue assumptions deserve careful scrutiny. "Thanks to a public records request, I have obtained the preliminary results of the investment grade analysis which show that vastly fewer vehicles will use the I‑5 Bridges ... once we implement tolls, the traffic will go from about 127,000 vehicles a day to 77,000 vehicles per day," Courtright said. He warned that building capacity that will be unused is "a transportation own goal of epic proportions."
Courtright also said the bulk of the project's cost is associated with widening and rebuilding roughly five miles of freeway and seven interchanges to carry projected volumes — not the bridge itself — and urged the commission not to disregard the investment-grade analysis, which he described as more realistic than some prior forecasting methods. Staff later emphasized financial conservatism in toll assumptions, including a 1.4 coverage ratio and a revenue stabilization account, but did not directly refute the exact traffic numbers Courtright cited in his public comment.
