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Interstate Bridge Replacement team raises estimated cost, proposes 'core' first‑step and seeks timeline agreement
Summary
Program staff updated commissioners on a new March estimate that puts the Interstate Bridge Replacement most‑likely cost at $14.4 billion (70th percentile), proposed a reduced 'core' funded first phase (~$5.68B) and requested timelines and STIP alignment while warning of federal deadlines and funding risks.
Program staff for the Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) told the Oregon Transportation Commission the program’s March 2026 cost estimate produced a most‑likely (70th percentile) number of about $14.4 billion. Carly Francis, interim IBR program administrator, and ODOT finance staff said the revision reflects three drivers: large nationwide construction cost escalation since 2022, schedule extensions (the program moved from a ~10‑year to a ~20‑year construction horizon), and a robust program‑level risk allowance ($4.2 billion) added to base costs and escalation.
Given the budget gap, staff proposed advancing a defined "core" first phase intended to be independently useful: replacement of the Columbia River bridges with space for light rail, connections to I‑5 and SR‑14, Hayden Island connections, shore approaches and limited transit infrastructure. After packaging efficiencies and added funding assumptions (including updated toll revenue projections, validated by Washington State treasury and ODOT finance), staff reported that Step 1 costs were updated to about $5.68 billion in March, with a STIP amendment proposed to program those near‑term activities and to preserve federal grant opportunities.
Staff emphasized that several federal awards and obligations are time‑sensitive: roughly $546 million of federal bridge investment grant funds would expire if not obligated by the end of September. They described a financing pathway that combines federal grants, state funds, an anticipated $1.0 billion FTA Capital Investment Grant request (not yet committed), and projected toll revenues (Updated toll analysis used a lower scenario but raised projected toll backing to $1.5 billion after Washington treasury and ODOT finance review). Program staff said they will continue working with the Washington State Transportation Commission on toll analyses and governance and asked commissioners to plan for rapid review when the level‑3 traffic and revenue memo is issued.
Commissioners expressed concern about the dramatic increase from earlier estimates; Vice Chair Beyer and others pressed for transparent documentation of assumptions and for more time to review the investment‑grade toll memo. Staff agreed to provide the level‑3 traffic and revenue memo in advance of a joint meeting June 5 and to schedule a special virtual commission session (May 26 was later agreed) to review the analysis before taking action; the commission did not take a financing vote at the meeting.
Provenance: IBR cost update and program discussion during the Interstate Bridge Replacement presentation, including staff remarks on cost drivers, schedule impacts, funding mix and near‑term federal deadlines.
