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Committee debates use of IPCC 8.5 scenario in Chapter 5, some call it 'implausible'
Summary
A committee member said Chapter 5 overstates risk by relying on RCP 8.5; members recommended either updating scenarios to current IPCC guidance or de‑emphasizing model extremes and focusing recommendations on near‑term adaptation.
Committee member (speaker 8) strongly criticized Chapter 5’s climate‑projection approach, saying the chapter is "simply incorrect and based on completely implausible scenarios" and urged the committee to consider reworking or removing those projections. The member argued that the chapter’s charts and date ranges appear inconsistent and that newer IPCC scenario guidance should be reflected in the report.
Other members acknowledged the concern and recommended two parallel steps: (1) work with UMass/state contacts to identify the most up‑to‑date, regionally relevant projections and sea‑level maps; and (2) shift the report’s emphasis toward near‑term, actionable resilience measures so recommendations remain useful regardless of model divergences. Chair (speaker 1) said the committee could vote to remove or revise material if members bring a motion at the next review.
