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PASA study: Clear Creek ISD faces long-term enrollment shift as kindergarten cohorts shrink
Summary
A PASA demographic report presented July 27 shows falling birth rates and smaller kindergarten cohorts for Clear Creek ISD, a 240-student decline in Hispanic enrollment this year, and housing-driven, planning-unit–level projections the district will use for facilities planning.
Consultants from PASA told Clear Creek Independent School District trustees on July 27 that the district is in the midst of a multi-factor enrollment shift driven by falling birth rates, school-choice options and cohort aging.
"The state as a whole lost about 77,000 students this year and about 62,000 of that was Hispanic student population," said Chris Poole of PASA during the presentation, citing statewide and local data. He said Clear Creek ISD saw a 240-student decrease in Hispanic enrollment this year, one part of a broader enrollment decline the consultants have documented.
Poole and colleague Caroline Couch reviewed their methods — geocoding student addresses, comparing birth rates to kindergarten enrollment, and building three projection scenarios (primary, accelerated and reduced). The consultants highlighted two structural drivers: kindergarten cohorts that have fallen below birth-rate expectations and a district population weighted toward larger secondary cohorts that will exit in coming years.
PASA also reported that single-family homes in the district currently yield about 1.45 CCISD students per household on average and that the district has roughly 22,000 seats available for about 17,000 students now. The consultants urged the board to use planning-unit maps and scenario planning to time attendance-zone or facility changes, and to track alternative educational opportunities (charters, private schools and TIFA-funded choices) that can quickly change capture rates.
