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Staff: enrollment projections may undercount Sherwood West development
Summary
District staff reported Davis Demographics’ forecast did not include Sherwood West, meaning the 10-year projections could be low; board members urged staff to cross-check city permits and monitor actual enrollments.
A staff member told the board Davis Demographics did not include the Sherwood West area in its forecast, and cautioned that projections become less reliable the further they extend. "Davis demographics did not include in this any of the Sherwood West area," the staff member said, noting the firm limits its long-range projections to developments judged highly likely within five years.
Board members pressed staff to check city permit data and to monitor enrollments as new homes are occupied. Staff said it will meet with city officials and examine permit activity and current enrollments to refine planning. The comments prompted several board members to flag the uncertainty of 10-year forecasts when major development is underway.
