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District staff present three-scenario enrollment forecast; district count slightly below middle projection
Summary
Superintendent and business staff reviewed a Flow Analytics enrollment forecast that offers low, middle and optimistic scenarios for the next decade. Flow Analytics' middle projection for 2024'5 is 8,963 students; the district's Oct. 7 count was 8,906.
Superintendent Dr. Ludwig and the district's chief operating officer summarized Flow Analytics' three-scenario enrollment projections and said staff will use the middle scenario as the primary planning case. Flow Analytics' middle projection for 2024'5 is 8,963 students; the district's point-in-time October 7 headcount was 8,906, placing the district between the middle and low scenarios.
Pat McGuff, the district—hief operating officer, told the board that Flow Analytics' report includes grade-band and scenario detail and that the small-schools task force will receive the full report and supporting figures. "We reached out to the best of the best who do this work," McGuff said, noting the firm's experience. Board members and public commenters asked for clear breakdowns by school, treatment of open-enrollment students, and methodology detail before any closure decisions were advanced.
