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District presents mathematical analysis of consolidating three small primaries
Summary
Staff said only certain consolidation scenarios are mathematically feasible given building capacity and the delayed opening of Frog Pond Primary; they recommended the board consider either no closure, closing one school in 2025–26, or a staged two‑school consolidation with the second in 2026–27.
District staff presented an analysis of Bolton, Cedar Oak Park, and Stafford primary schools, using current enrollment, resident counts, inter/intradistrict transfer data and Flow Analytics projections to test consolidation scenarios. Assistant Superintendent David Prior summarized facility capacity and concluded that only three scenarios are viable: maintain all schools (Option None), close one primary in 2025–26 (Option 1), or close one in 2025–26 and a second in 2026–27 (staged Option 2). He said closing two schools in the same year would exceed capacity in the receiving schools under current projections.
"It is possible in 2526 for the district to consolidate 1 primary school," the presentation stated, while also noting that closing two primaries in the same year would create an enrollment need that outstrips available capacity. Staff emphasized the analysis is mathematical — it shows where space exists today or in 2026 when Frog Pond opens — and that boundary adjustments, transportation, and program placement would be separate operational steps if the board chooses consolidation.
Why it matters: the analysis ties consolidation choices to near-term operations: bus routes, family reassignments, staff placement, and the timing of Frog Pond Primary's opening. Staff requested the board consider a decision timeline to allow boundary and route planning if closures are selected.
