County investment adviser presents market outlook, recommends targeted purchases as yields rise

Jim Gretch, a financial adviser with Eiler's Investments of Minneapolis, told the St. Croix County Administration Committee that the fixed-income market is shifting toward higher longer-term yields and a more “normalized” yield curve. He said that longer-term rates have been moving higher while short-term cash rates are relatively lower, a pattern his firm sees as technically favorable for municipal investors: “every time you reinvest, you get a raise,” he said.

Gretch walked the committee through the county portfolio’s composition — municipal bonds, U.S. government agencies and treasuries — and described a measured approach to trading as markets move. He said the firm had been positioning the county to capture higher rates and planned to “put $22,000,000 into 2031” over the next week or two when market conditions permit. Gretch also reported that the county portfolio returned 5.08% net of fees over the past year on an approximately $65–70 million portfolio, and he linked a strong investment showing to improved borrowing metrics: “that makes a big difference in the amount of money that you all have to use for projects, also helps your bond rating and keeps your borrowing costs low.”

Committee members asked technical questions about the presentation slides and maturities; one supervisor noted a color key ambiguity on a chart and Gretch agreed to clarify the graphic. The outlook was discussed in the context of recent geopolitical uncertainty and inflation data; Gretch said he expected the Federal Reserve to hold rates at the next meeting and that inflation trends would be an ongoing driver of long-term yields. The committee did not take action on investments at the meeting; Gretch’s remarks were presented as the adviser’s market view and a plan for near-term purchases.