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Consultants tell council PS4‑3 groundwater scenario would enable large near‑term economic activity but lower artesian head
Summary
Westwater Research presented a socioeconomic analysis comparing two Simsboro Aquifer management scenarios (PS4‑2 vs PS4‑3). PS4‑3 would allow roughly 1,000,000 additional acre‑feet over 50 years, enabling projected additional economic output (tens of billions) and roughly 5,150 equivalent full‑time jobs, while producing greater artesian head reduction than PS4‑2; the Groundwater Conservation District described a well‑mitigation program tied to transport permits.
Consultants from Westwater Research reviewed a socioeconomic impact analysis prepared for the Brazos Valley Groundwater Conservation District (GCD) and stakeholders. Charlene Lorig (Texas regional director) explained the two modeled Desired Future Conditions (PS 4‑2, the currently proposed GMA 12 alignment, and potential PS 4‑3, an alternative Brazos Valley requested the GMA consider). She said PS 4‑2 would result in an average artesian head reduction of about 284 feet by 2080, while PS 4‑3 would reduce head by about 330 feet; the difference stems from the greater groundwater production modeled under PS 4‑3.
Harry Zeely (principal, Westwater Research) described the economic allocation of the additional supply under PS4‑3: the firm allocated roughly 3,100 acre‑feet to data centers by 2080 (supporting an estimated ~2+ gigawatts of capacity), assigned about 70% of new supply to conventional power (an estimated ~700 megawatts), allotted ≈15% to small nuclear at RELLIS (~170 MW equivalent) and ~5% to residential growth (roughly 4,400 homes), and estimated a total incremental economic output across the analysis period in the tens of billions of dollars. Westwater said the PS4‑3 scenario yields a larger near‑term construction and operational spending profile and about 5,150 equivalent full‑time jobs (measured as job‑years) over the 50‑year modeling window.
Council members pressed for local impacts and mitigation. Alan Day, Brazos Valley GCD general manager, said the district’s review attributes most of the projected well‑mitigation cost (presenters referenced figures around $94M and another statement of ~$110M) to the Upwell transport permit and that the GCD aims to protect Simsboro well owners through a mitigation program funded by production fees. Day emphasized the district’s statutory mandate to avoid leaving Simsboro well owners without service: “We’re not going to allow anyone with a Simsboro well to run out of water,” he said. Presenters and GCD staff also noted that existing projects (Vista Ridge, already sending water out of the basin) have contributed to observed artesian head declines, and that transport permits are capped and will be vetted to prioritize local needs.
