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Bexar County budget office warns of slowing property‑tax growth; recommends near‑term mitigation steps

Bexar County Commissioners Court · April 28, 2026
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Summary

Preliminary April appraisals show near‑zero year‑over‑year growth in assessed values; staff warned the court the general fund could move from a modest projected deficit to a much larger shortfall unless the county pursues mitigation (freeze vacancies, defer COLAs, limit new programs).

Bexar County’s budget office presented an updated long‑range financial forecast April 28 that flagged a sharp slowdown in the county’s property‑tax base and recommended early mitigation as staff refine the FY27 budget.

Budget director Tanya Gaetan said the April appraisal district report — the first official data ahead of the July final — showed taxable assessed‑value growth of under 1 percent year over year in the April snapshot. County staff said that, after accounting for expected protest losses and new exemptions, the forecast now shows a potential negative growth scenario that would materially increase a projected general‑fund shortfall in coming years.

The county manager and budget team urged proactive mitigation rather than late, deeper cuts. Options discussed included pausing cost‑of‑living adjustments, freezing civilian vacancies, deferring new program starts and reevaluating capital projects. "We wanted to get in front of this," the county manager said, noting the worst‑case decline in assessed values would be the most severe the county has seen since the 2008 housing shock. Staff said they will present an itemized menu of savings and the estimated fiscal effect of each option as the budget season progresses.

Commissioners asked for more detailed breakouts — including which programs are currently funded with one‑time ARPA and opioid dollars that may need replacement — and staff agreed to return with specifics to inform decisions before the FY27 budget is finalized.