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Santa Rosa City Bus warns of fiscal ‘cliff,’ proposes reliability-first fixes
Summary
Staff told council the City Bus system faces a fiscal squeeze and declining on-time performance (73% vs. 90% goal). Short-term fixes include retiming routes, reinvesting in Route 1 and strategic interlining; staff warned that improving reliability without added operating cost will require reallocating hours and potentially reducing low‑productivity service.
City transit staff delivered a short-range transit plan update outlining operational challenges, fiscal pressures, and a two‑phased response to stabilize service. Dan (senior transit manager) and Rachel Lee (Deputy Director, Transit) said the system operates at roughly 73,000 service hours—about 80–83% of pre-COVID levels—and that ridership has tracked service hours (about 80% of pre‑COVID ridership). The most urgent operational metric is on‑time performance, which staff said has dropped to about 73% (staff target: 90%).
Rachel Lee said the short-term work program (next 6 months) will focus on three priorities: (1) retiming and tactical changes to restore on‑time performance (including adjusting cycle times and stop placements), (2) reinvesting in Route 1 (the system backbone) to address overcrowding and reliability, and (3) strategic interlines to improve cross‑town connectivity and timed transfers to regional service (SMART, Sonoma County Transit). She warned that the system cannot add buses without increasing operating cost: “In order to improve on time performance without adding operating cost, we will have to reallocate hours within the system,” Lee said.
Staff also reviewed fiscal constraints: the transit operating budget relies heavily on sales-tax–based sources and TDA funds held with MTC; reserves are projected to be drawn down starting in FY27, and a bus purchase now costs about $1.4 million. Staff said they will pursue targeted public engagement on proposed changes to low‑productivity routes (Route 10 north/south segments, Oakmont deviated service, Route 18), return to council in the fall with data‑backed recommendations, and aim for initial service changes in January if supported by analysis.
