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PowerSchool forecast: TK surge but mid-term student counts likely to shrink
Summary
PowerSchool presented two enrollment scenarios: a conservative forecast of about 4,830 general-education students next year (5,100 including special day classes) and a moderate scenario of about 4,900, with both projecting declines over the next decade; a planned 500-unit housing project could add roughly 150 students by 2031 under the moderate scenario.
Zach Worthen, product solution director for PowerSchool’s predictive enrollment analytics, presented conservative and moderate enrollment forecasts for Franklin McKinley School District covering 2026–2035.
Worthen said the conservative projection estimates about 4,830 general education students for next year (about 5,100 including special day class students) and projects a longer-term contraction to around 4,000 by 2035. The moderate projection starts slightly higher—about 4,900 general-education students next year—and declines at a slower rate to roughly 4,400 by 2035. “As a reminder, this is our conservative projection… with a projection next year of about 4,830 students,” Worthen said.
The presentation described methodology (kindergarten entry rates, cohort aging, interdistrict transfers, residential development and anomalous events such as the pandemic) and included a residential-development analysis for a local project the consultant called the Communications Hill/Communications Center project: roughly 500 units with occupancy through 2031 and a modeled student generation of about 150 students carried into the district by 2031.
Trustees asked how the district should use the two scenarios. Assistant Superintendent Vaughn said the district plans to rely on the conservative study for revenue claiming and budget preparation, while using the moderate study for facilities planning. Vaughn added staff revisit projections at least three times per year (45-day budget revision, first and second interim) and that the district currently counts 81 students who live on Communications Hill and attend district schools.
Trustees raised whether additional outreach or surveying could identify students who live in-district but are enrolled elsewhere (charter, private or homeschooling). Worthen and district staff said some of those numbers are not fully observable from enrollment systems and that targeted surveys or door-to-door outreach could provide more accurate current-state data.
