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DPH epidemiologist: Connecticut firearm homicides and nonfatal assaults have fluctuated since 2019, with recent declines in some measures
Summary
The Department of Public Health presented multi-source data showing firearm homicides rose after 2019 but have recently declined in preliminary 2025/2026 data; nonfatal firearm assaults remain concentrated among younger Black non-Hispanic males.
Susan Logan, supervising epidemiologist at the Department of Public Health’s injury and violence surveillance unit, gave the commission an annual data update on nonfatal assaults, homicides and suicides across Connecticut.
Logan said the agency uses three primary data sources: CHIME hospital discharge data (most complete through 2023), syndromic emergency-department registrations (near‑real‑time), and the Connecticut Violent Death Reporting System. "We actually have the violent death reporting system data up through 2026 at this point," Logan said, noting that those figures are preliminary and that CHIME and syndromic surveillance measure different things and therefore can diverge.
The presentation showed nonfatal assault patterns from 2020–2023 with firearm assaults representing a smaller count (because firearms are more lethal) but disproportionately affecting Black non‑Hispanic males. Logan highlighted city-level age-adjusted nonfatal firearm assault rates with Hartford highest in the CHIME series (38.3 per 100,000) and New Haven, Bridgeport and Waterbury also elevated. She cautioned that differences between CHIME and syndromic surveillance reflect distinct capture methods and time periods, not an error: "Syndromic surveillance is preliminary and can include false positives," she said.
On homicide trends, Logan reported that age-adjusted homicide rates rose beginning in 2019 and increased through the COVID period, then have started to decline; firearm homicides drove much of the earlier increase. "Overall, we're looking really good as far as the trending down over time," she said, while underscoring that rates remain highest among younger males and that racial disparities persist.
Logan closed by noting changes in suicide trends differ from homicide patterns, highlighting recent increases in suicide rates among older adults and pointing to planned outreach in senior centers and community settings. The commission requested follow-up slides and indicated the DPH would provide updated CHIME and syndromic visualizations as more 2024–25 data become available.
