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Advocate urges PSC to require Northwestern Energy to model higher gas-price scenarios in IRP
Summary
A Northwest Energy Coalition representative told the Montana PSC that Northwestern Energy underestimates future natural gas prices in its integrated resource plan and should run sensitivity modeling up to a 71% price increase based on recent U.S. EIA outlooks.
Derek Goldman, Montana policy and regulatory associate for the Northwest Energy Coalition, urged the Montana Public Service Commission during public comment to require Northwestern Energy to run more aggressive natural‑gas price sensitivity modeling in its integrated resource plan. Goldman said the utility has saved "over a 153,000,000, in benefits since 2021" through participation in regional markets and supported the utility joining a day‑ahead market to find lower‑cost energy options.
Goldman cited U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts, saying the EIA expects the Henry Hub price for natural gas to rise about 33% in the near term and projects a 43–71% increase through the 2030s. He said Northwestern ran only a 50% gas‑price sensitivity scenario and asked the commission to require modeling of a 71% increase because assumptions about gas prices materially influence the resource mix selected by IRP models. Goldman also raised concerns that nuclear generation may be less reliable during summer heat waves — citing recent curtailments in France — and questioned whether nuclear would meet summer peak capacity if Montana becomes more summer‑peaking due to electrification and data‑center loads.
Chair Welborn thanked Goldman for filing written comments with the commission’s portal. No formal response or action followed during the meeting; the comment was entered into the record for the ongoing IRP docket.
