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County staff cites economic slowdown, elevated inflation as basis for conservative revenue estimates
Summary
Hillsborough County budget staff told the committee that revenue projections for a renewed 0.5% surtax reflect a current economic slowdown, elevated inflation and interest rates, and weaker labor markets, with sales-tax revenue expected to be flat next year before growing about 3% thereafter.
Kevin Brickey, Director of Management and Budget, explained the economic context underlying the financial impact statement's revenue estimates.
"The revenue estimates are reflective of a current slowdown in economic activity ... as interest rates have remained high, inflation remains elevated ... labor markets are a little bit weaker," Brickey said. He added the assumption that sales-tax-type revenue will be flat in the coming year and that a 3% growth rate is possible thereafter.
Those assumptions inform the two-year revenue estimates the committee adopted. Committee members did not dispute the presented economic assumptions during the meeting and proceeded to adopt the financial impact statement without requesting additional modeling or revisions.
The explanation provides the public-facing rationale for the statement's projections; staff or committees preparing referendum materials may supply more detailed modeling if requested by county leadership or oversight bodies.
