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Consultant: Oakwood Point could reduce per-unit capital cost, but benefit hinges on growth
Summary
Consultant Fred presented a capital-only model showing per-ERU debt-service could be lower if Oakwood Point joins SPID, but he warned the advantage depends on actual growth; the board discussed breakeven growth rates and model limits.
Fred, the consultant, told the board the spreadsheet was intended to compare capital-only impacts per ERU between building for SPID alone and building for SPID plus Oakwood Point. "I did calculate the average rate across the full life of the project," Fred said, explaining the analysis focuses on how capital costs spread over ERUs rather than providing a final customer-rate recommendation.
Fred said the model shows an average capital-component per-ERU of roughly $12 with OPID included versus about $12.87 without OPID, but emphasized that is a life-average debt-service component only. He warned that the result requires the OPID growth to materialize: "If none of it happens ... you would be worse off," he said, noting the board would still carry interest and debt service on a larger facility without the complementary ERU growth.
Board members asked what growth rate OPID would need to make the inclusion advantageous; Fred said roughly 1% growth (~30'6 ERUs per year) makes the scenarios close, and something like 1.25% or higher tends to favor the OPID scenario. The board asked staff to test alternate growth assumptions and integrate operational costs and fund-balance planning into the rate model before making final rate or bond decisions.
