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Committee’s preliminary analysis cites $12M local impact, flags wide uncertainty
Summary
A presenter in the advisory meeting said a first-cut analysis suggests roughly $12 million in property-value impacts tied to an airport scenario (about $2,000 per house per 1 dB), but speakers emphasized the number is approximate and highly sensitive to data and method.
During the advisory committee meeting, the presenter explained he used the hedonic study Joe circulated and applied the methodology to the local SANT scenario to produce a rough estimate. “I gave a number with SANT around $12,000,000,” the presenter said, adding that the figure equates to about $2,000 per house for a 1 dB increase and that the project’s modeled noise increases are commonly less than 1.5 dB.
Members cautioned that the study’s dataset lacks second-sale/resale sensitivity and that extrapolations can produce very different long-term figures; the presenter noted that expanding contours beyond 65 DNL could push illustrative totals higher (he mentioned hypothetical extrapolations up to the low hundreds of millions under certain assumptions). Committee members repeatedly described these numbers as illustrative rather than definitive and stressed that more local paired-sales data would be needed to reach robust fiscal estimates.
