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Demographer: Crowley ISD enrollment at record ~17,100; pipeline of lots and apartments could yield steady growth
Summary
A demographer told trustees Crowley ISD's official snapshot enrollment is about 17,100, with net growth over the last five years of about 1,400 students and a large housing pipeline (thousands of lots and apartments) that supports multi-scenario enrollment projections over the next 5–10 years.
Demographer Mr. Alexander presented a detailed enrollment and housing briefing that the board treated as a major information item. He said the official 2025–26 snapshot enrollment is "just right at 17,100," a record high for the district, and noted that the district has grown in 10 of the last 11 years.
Alexander described recent annual net growth (about 54 students in the last year), a five-year net gain of nearly 1,400 students (8.7%), and three projection scenarios (low, moderate, high) that depend on yields per new lot and broader market factors (vouchers, housing prices, interest rates). He discussed yields (0.35–0.4 for many new single-family subdivisions; built-to-rent yields around 0.1) and inventory: roughly 1,000 homes under construction, about 3,200 fully developed lots ready to build, roughly 2,400 lots under development, and more than 11,000 lots planned on paper plus over 4,000 apartments.
Mr. Alexander explained how geocoding maps student addresses and how different attendance zones will feel growth differently; the district is using these projections for bond planning, capacity analysis, and possible boundary adjustments. Under a moderate scenario the district could add roughly 1,400 students over five years; under higher scenarios growth could be larger depending on yields and buildout timing.
Trustees asked questions about yields, kindergarten forecasts, transfers, and capacity thresholds; the demographer explained the uses for bond planning (target functional capacity between ~400 and 600 for elementary schools and target utilization between ~70–85%).
