Stantec presents Level 3 traffic-and-revenue study: four toll scenarios, assumed start dates and discounts

Stantec lead Liz Horta presented the Level 3 traffic-and-revenue (TNR) study that underpins current toll scenarios for the Interstate Bridge Replacement. The study used Metro’s regional travel-demand model, new traffic counts, floating-car travel-time runs, origin–destination information (StreetLight), Google speed data, an independent land-use forecast and a stated-preference survey administered in April 2025. "The objective of the level 3 forecast... is to provide annual toll traffic and net revenue forecasts to support toll rate setting and the adoption of formal toll policy as well as to secure a credit rating," Horta said.

The team analyzed four scenarios previously advanced by the commissions. The study assumes pre-completion tolling begins on 2028-07-01 and post-completion tolling would begin on 2035-07-01. Overnight hours (11 p.m.–5 a.m.) are assumed toll-free during pre-completion. Scenario differences include lower early car tolls with higher truck multipliers (scenario 1), trade-offs on peak and weekend tiers (scenarios 2–4), and varying timing for low-income discounts (scenarios 1–2 assume a 50% discount when the new bridge opens; scenarios 3–4 assume the discount 'as soon as practical' which the study modeled as the start of pre-completion tolling). Horta said scenarios include built-in escalation (for example 2.15% annual escalation in scenarios 1–3) and varying truck multipliers used to balance revenue targets and modal equity.

Stantec also reported that the four scenarios produce relatively similar long-term traffic and net-revenue lines, and that scenario 2 was used as a representative case for financial sufficiency testing by state treasuries.