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Council: Iran war and tariffs push up energy prices, shave near-term outlook

Economic Revenue Forecast Council ยท June 9, 2026
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Summary

The council said higher energy costs linked to the Iran war have raised Seattle-area inflation and that tariff pass-through is adding to goods-price inflation, both of which lower near-term revenue prospects.

Dave, executive director of the Economic Revenue Forecast Council, told members that the February forecast did not include impacts from the Iran war and that Washingtonians are seeing the effects through higher energy prices and airfares. "So all of us have seen felt the pain at the pump," he said, and added that the duration of the conflict will determine how large the economic effects become.

He said Seattle-area consumer prices were 4.9% in April and that about one percentage point of that increase was tied to energy impacts from the Iran war, leaving around 3.9% excluding energy. Dave also highlighted tariff pass-through as a separate upward pressure on goods prices and noted recent tariff authorizations will expire next month and require new authorizations.