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Economic Forecast: Council predicts modest 2% growth amid higher energy costs
Summary
The Economic Revenue Forecast Council reported modest statewide GDP growth of about 2% and warned that higher energy prices from the Iran war and tariff uncertainty have lowered near-term outlooks; a revenue update is due June 26.
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Dave, executive director of the Economic Revenue Forecast Council, presented the council’s updated economic forecast and told members the outlook is slightly less optimistic than in February. "Happy to be here today to, present our updated economic forecast," he said, and outlined that the forecast will underpin a revenue update to be released in two weeks.
Dave said consumption remains an important support for the economy — "Consumption makes up about 0.667 of economic output" — but noted higher energy prices and tariff pass-through have dampened the near-term outlook. He summarized the council’s central projection as roughly 2% GDP growth over the near term, with modest employment gains and elevated inflation this year. The council will publish a monthly revenue-collection report on June 12 and return with an updated revenue forecast on June 26.
