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Arcadia Unified board hears 15th annual enrollment and staffing presentation as elementary enrollment hits record high
Summary
District staff told the board their resident-based projections are within 0.5% for 2024–25 and that elementary enrollment is the highest in district history; presenters warned TK date changes and COVID-era data complicate short-term accuracy.
Arcadia Unified officials told the school board on Oct. 8 that the district’s resident‑based enrollment projections are tracking within the district goal of 2% — about 40 students out of the total — for 2024–25, and that elementary enrollment has reached a record high.
“This is the 15th time I’ve done this presentation,” said Scott Bramley, the district’s enrollment presenter, as he walked the board through the district’s three projection models and the process that feeds staffing decisions. Bramley said the resident‑based model uses birth, geographic and mobility data and is the most accurate for school‑site projections after several recent years of COVID‑era distortions. “As of today, we have more students enrolled in elementary schools than Arcadia has ever had in the history of Arcadia Unified School District,” Bramley said.
The presentation outlined three formal projection goals: districtwide projections within 2% of actual enrollment, each school within 20 students, and each grade within single‑digit accuracy. Bramley and other staff attributed recent projection misses primarily to shifting TK cutoff dates and abnormal COVID‑era enrollment patterns. Staff emphasized that the demographic work is an 18‑month ongoing cycle that informs hiring and classroom configurations.
