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Consultant: Polling shows split but moves to 50% as voters get more information
Summary
Assist Education presented a 400‑respondent poll showing 39% initial support for an $18 million bond language; support climbed to about 50% after respondents were given additional project details, with 'strong yes' shares increasing when additions (classrooms/cafeteria) were included.
Kyle of Assist Education told the Yamhill Carlton SD 1 board that his firm completed about 400 likely‑voter phone interviews (Sept. 16–18) with roughly a ±5 percentage‑point margin of error. "This was a survey of about 400... completed surveys," he said, describing the sample and interview length.
Kyle said top‑line responses to the ballot language for the largest package tested ($18 million) were 39% yes and 41% no, with only 17% describing themselves as "strongly yes." He added that when the same respondents were provided progressively more context about projects and benefits, the yes share rose: "By the time we got to the 3rd ask, you're at 50%." The consultant highlighted that perceptions of facility condition heavily influence voting: respondents who saw facilities as poor were about 62% likely to support a bond, while those who believed facilities were in good condition skewed against it.
The presentation emphasized that current families tend to be the most supportive group but that many community members do not follow district communications; the consultant recommended focused outreach to undecided and less‑engaged voters. The board did not take a vote on any bond measure during the meeting; the presentation was a preparatory briefing and discussion of next steps.
