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Study: city‑operated model could cost about $22 per household; capital startup in tens of millions
Summary
The consultant presented four scenarios that model trucks, routes, staffing and capital; a full city‑operated program was estimated at roughly $13M equipment plus larger facility costs and about $22.22 per household under study assumptions.
Burns & McDonnell presented detailed operational and capital modeling for four scenarios: city‑operated (100% households), city‑operated with HOA opt‑out, city‑contracted (full) and city‑contracted with HOA opt‑out. The consultant’s assumptions included weekly trash and recycling, yard waste collection and a bulky‑item call‑in estimate based on comparable programs.
Julie Davis said the city‑operated scenario would require about 26 routes, 39 trucks (including backups), roughly 107,000 carts and 45 employees. “You would need 26 routes, for a city operated program servicing the whole city, and you would need 18 routes for the 30,000 HOA opt out option,” she explained. Capital estimates for equipment were presented as about $13,000,000 for the full city‑operated scenario and about $9,000,000 for the opt‑out scenario; cart purchases were listed at roughly $5,000,000 and $3,000,000 respectively. Facility land and development costs raised total initiation estimates in the consultant slides to roughly $45,500,000 (city‑operated) and $39,600,000 (opt‑out).
When amortized and combined with operational costs, the consultant presented per‑household estimates: “So on scenario 1, the very bottom line, the cost per household in the city operated is $22.22,” Davis said. The HOA‑opt‑out variant increased that estimate in the model to about $26.37 per household; a city‑contracted model under full participation was roughly $21.95 per household in the consultant’s slide.
Council members and staff noted these are high‑level estimates based on many assumptions (2025 base numbers, participation rates, landfill distances and reserve policies) and will need refinement during planning and the RFP process.
