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Carlinville enrollment forecast shows steady decline to about 1,115 students by 2030–31
Summary
District demographer Heather DeNeve presented projections showing enrollment falling from 1,175 this year to about 1,115 by 2030–31, a roughly 1.2% annual decline that the board said will affect long-term planning and EBM funding.
At the Feb. 16 board meeting, district data coordinator Heather DeNeve presented an enrollment forecast based on IDPH birth data and survival-ratio modeling, showing a decline from 1,175 current students to a projected 1,115 by 2030–31.
DeNeve explained the methodology uses birth data limited to Carlinville city and township and applies survival ratios to estimate cohort progression into kindergarten and beyond. She noted limitations including the assumption that historical trends continue and that IDPH had only provided birth data for 2024 and 2025. The district’s five‑year average decline is about 1.2% per year, roughly 15 students annually; board members heard that the Evidence-Based Model (EBM) funding formula bases funding on enrollment rather than attendance, although a base funding minimum offers some protection from declines.
Board members discussed the implications for budgeting and staffing; staff will include these projections in upcoming Finance Committee reviews and present potential reductions and scenarios to building staff in March.
