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Board asks staff to test discount-rate and harvest-flow scenarios in East Side model
Summary
Staff will run sensitivity analyses on discount rate (board previously set 1.7% in the no-action case) and on varying the harvest-flow constraint (policy default ±25% per decade) to show how those inputs change harvest levels and other outcomes.
Staff presented two alternatives that change model inputs rather than objective functions: sensitivity to discount rate and varying the harvest-flow constraint.
Susan Beal noted the board made a February motion to use 1.7% as the discount rate in the no-action formulation and staff proposed a sensitivity analysis across a range of discount-rate values "which will show impacts to the harvest levels from using different discount rates." Staff said they will report how NPV and harvest levels change across the range and could convert one or more sensitivity cases into full EIS alternatives if the board requests.
On harvest-flow constraints, staff explained that policy currently requires mean annual timber volume in any decade not vary by more than 25% from the preceding decade; staff proposed testing tighter or looser constraints (0% up to higher values) to explore trade-offs between smoothing harvest for intergenerational equity and front-loading harvest to accelerate resilience actions. Board members asked staff to show uncertainty bands for long-term projections and to explain operational implications of different flow constraints.
