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Officials stress household readiness after city’s 14-hour evacuation model
Summary
City emergency staff presented multi-jurisdictional wildfire plans and modeling that show a worst-case Ladros simulation predicting a 14 hour, 45 minute full-town evacuation, and urged residents to prepare now and sign up for Pick and Alert notifications.
City emergency staff on Dec. 2 told Aspen City Council that advanced modeling of a full evacuation showed how quickly traffic and logistics can overwhelm the valley, and urged residents to prepare household plans and sign up for official alerts.
"[Ladros] predicts a 14 hour and 45 minute evacuation for full evacuation of town," said Bill Lynn, assistant chief of operations with the Aspen Police Department, when showing the worst-case passenger‑vehicle model. Presenters emphasized that this figure represents a worst‑case, passenger‑car‑only scenario and does not account for buses, people who arrived by other means, vehicles that break down or other real‑world delays.
Staff described complementary products to the Ladros traffic model: a zone‑design tool (Genesys) intended to create staged evacuation zones and reduce overall evacuation time. Presenters said those tools are still under development and that public messaging will stress early action: "If you feel you need to leave now, you need to leave now," staff said.
The presentation stressed regional cooperation — police, fire, ambulance, county emergency management and the dispatch center — and repeated advice for individual households: make a family plan, assemble basic supplies, and register for Pick and Alert and IPAWS emergency messages. Staff said a public‑facing evacuation plan and materials are expected early next year.
Council members pressed for clarity on when to act, hazard mapping, and redundancy in communications systems; staff pointed to an address‑level rating map hosted at aspenfire.com and said the community will receive more public‑facing materials as plans are finalized. The briefing closed with a reminder that individual preparation expands options and improves outcomes in fast‑moving incidents.
