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Study session: Arcadia Unified says enrollment projections were within 2% this year
Summary
District staff reported the enrollment projection process performed strongly this year, with districtwide projections within 2% on both cohort and resident models, and discussed permits/releases, cohort trends and new mapping tools for analysis.
District staff presented a detailed study session on enrollment projections and data analysis at the Oct. 14 board meeting, reporting that this year's projections performed well across models and describing steps to improve school- and grade-level accuracy.
"Our district was within 2% on both models," said Greg Gazzini, the district's enrollment lead. He reported the district was 22 students over projections on the resident-based model and 43 students over on the incremental-sums cohort model, and called it "one of the best years of projections that we've had." The presentation described two primary modeling approaches — a cohort/incremental-sums method and a resident-based model using births, permits and geographic data — and the district's goals (under 2% districtwide error; within 20 students per school; single-digit per grade level).
Presenters reviewed an error analysis that examined permit and release activity. Staff said the district recorded 161 new permits this year and cited a historical total permits figure (about 1,278) used for longer-term analysis. The presentation noted cohort progression effects, a heat map of grade-level changes showing increasing elementary/middle counts and a decline at the high school level that the district will monitor as cohorts age into the high school.
District staff demonstrated new mapping and vendor tools to visualize where enrolled and permitted students live, and discussed analytic steps — including potential exit interviews for released students, working with realtors and state databases, and exploring AI and advanced models — to improve early signals and identify why families seek releases or permits. Board members asked for additional permit trend breakdowns by grade and for time-series permit charts in future presentations.
Staff said they will continue refining models, explore additional data sources and return with higher-resolution permit trend analyses and comparisons.
