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Board hears enrollment forecasts showing multi‑year decline toward ~3,600 students
Summary
Superintendent Shaw presented headcount history and forecast data indicating a projected decline from the current ~4,557 students toward roughly 3,600 by 2029–30; the board asked for ongoing monitoring tied to county birth data and other mobility metrics.
Superintendent Shaw walked trustees through historical headcount figures and forecasting output produced with a consultant, noting the district headcount was roughly 4,557 this year compared with a small decline from 4,597 the prior year. "This is not FTEs. The head count," Shaw clarified during his presentation.
Shaw said the consultant projects a continuing downward trend over the next five years and provided an illustrative bond‑planning projection that showed enrollment could sit around 3,600 students by 2029–30 if current trends hold. Board members asked staff to monitor Monroe County live‑birth releases each September and to reconcile multiple forecast scenarios so the board can understand the sensitivity of the plan to demographic changes.
Trustees also requested staff return with the projection methodology, assumptions about migration and intra‑district choice effects, and alternative scenarios for a slower or faster decline. No policy action or vote occurred at the meeting; staff committed to supply more granular data and to test projections against updated birth and mobility figures.
