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University analysis finds modest increase in releases and slight uptick in short‑term rearrests after Shelby County standing bail order
Summary
Judicial leaders and University of Memphis researchers told commissioners a first‑phase report shows modest growth in release‑on‑own‑recognizance rates after the standing bail order and a small rise in 120‑day rearrests, concentrated among misdemeanor cases; commissioners pressed for more causal analysis and transparency on screening records.
Lee Wilson, a judge in General Sessions Division 8, and John Marshall, lead judicial commissioner, presented a University of Memphis analysis of Shelby County's standing bail order and the county’s pretrial procedures. The report, published to the university site the morning of the meeting, examined case files from 2018–2023 and compared three six‑month windows around the order’s passage and implementation.
"The bail law has been the bail law for over 30 years," Judge Lee Wilson said, framing commissioners' work as applying long‑standing criteria while balancing public safety and least‑restrictive bonds. Jonathan Bennett, the university’s associate director and lead researcher on the project, said the university posted the report at 08:15 that morning and described the work as an initial, descriptive phase rather than a causal study: "We put it up at 08:15 this morning." The presenters said their early findings show a modest increase in releases (RORs) — with ROR rates rising from roughly 18% to the low‑to‑mid‑20s across the three measured windows — and a small increase in 120‑day rearrest rates, especially for cases that began as misdemeanors.
Marshall and Bennett told commissioners they controlled for the differing time windows used and said a second phase of study will use causal methods to adjust for changing crime patterns and case mix. Commissioners repeatedly asked for clearer local transparency; Marshall said the bail‑screening forms used by judicial commissioners will be placed on the public portal so the public and the commission can see who set each bond and the factors recorded. Commissioners urged the administration to post screening and bond records promptly and asked the University of Memphis to continue with a phase‑2 analysis that controls for underlying crime trends and offense severity.
The report and discussion were framed repeatedly as preliminary: Mr. Bennett said the phase‑2 causal study is planned for later this year, and Marshall cautioned that commissioner‑by‑commissioner variation reflects differing shifts and case types more than simple policy effects. Commissioners requested follow‑up data by offense type, the 120‑day rearrest breakdown by felony/misdemeanor, and an updated report incorporating cases through June 2024.
