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Board warned that enrollment losses could negate governor's 2.43% COLA increase
Summary
Officials told the board the governor's proposed 2025-26 budget projects a 2.43% COLA and an estimated $244,000 LCFF increase, but declining attendance and required expense increases mean the district's net gain is modest and could be reversed if ADA falls.
District staff briefed the board on the governor's proposed 2025-26 budget and how local enrollment trends affect funding. The presenter said the LCFF projection using prior-year attendance is roughly $244,000 higher than the current year but required expenses (step-and-column, retirement costs and other increases) are about $218,000, leaving a narrow positive balance of about $26,208.
The presenter cautioned that decreased attendance (ADA) can offset COLA gains; "If you have 50 less students, you know, that's $500,000," the presenter said, urging attention to attendance and the P2 report that will provide updated data. Board members discussed one-time funds, Title I and special education uncertainties and asked how conservative assumptions (e.g., LAO numbers) should be applied in second interim budgeting.
Members asked for follow-up in upcoming fiscal checkpoints (second interim and May state revisions) and for staff to model scenarios using lower ADA assumptions so the board can understand potential budget shortfalls and staffing implications.
