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E3 study warns of a modeled 9 GW Northwest capacity gap by 2030
Summary
A Phase 1 study presented to the UTC by consulting firm E3 projects a near-term supply shortfall and a modeled 9,000 MW effective capacity gap in the Northwest by 2030 unless new long-duration resources, imports or large-scale flexibility are developed and delivered on an accelerated timetable.
E3 senior partner Arnie Olson told the Utilities and Transportation Commission workshop that his firm’s Phase 1 analysis shows a near-term supply deficit and a much larger gap if development slows. “By 2030, our current numbers are showing that that gap will grow to 9 gigawatts of capacity that’s needed by 2030,” Olson said, comparing the shortfall to “approximately the size of the electric load of the state of Oregon.”
Olson said E3’s modeling indicates a possible 1 GW supply deficit as soon as 2026 under base assumptions and noted the study assumes roughly 3,750 MW of seasonal imports into the region. The firm estimates roughly 3,000 MW of projects are in active development by 2030; the remainder of the modeled 9 GW shortfall would require substantially more nameplate renewables and storage than typical because winter ELCCs for solar and short-duration batteries are low in the Northwest. "To meet a 9,000 megawatt effective capacity gap," Olson said, "it does require a 4 to 5x of our historical levels of resource development," meaning many more nameplate megawatts of intermittent resources would be needed to equal firm capacity.
E3 highlighted that typical Northwest shortfalls are long-duration winter events tied to low-hydro years and extended cold snaps, and therefore favor solutions that supply long-duration energy (firm gas with appropriate policy treatment, long-duration storage, dispatchable clean firm resources, transmission imports) or demand-side programs that can operate across multi-day events. The firm signaled phase 2 of its study will explore portfolios of solutions and tradeoffs between reliability, cost and decarbonization.
Provenance: topicintro SEG 1689, topfinish SEG 2408.
