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WEC: planned buildout large but dependent on timely project delivery; load growth driven by large loads
Summary
Western Electricity Coordinating Council analysts told regulators that 2024 resource plans show an unprecedented planned build (about 172 GW over 10 years) and rising load projections; they cautioned that reliability gains depend on whether planned projects are completed on schedule.
Victoria Ravenscroft and Katie Rogers of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council presented the WECs assessment and a preview of its 2024 findings, noting a large planned capacity increase across the Western Interconnection. "In the 2024 plans, we're seeing a 172 gigawatts over the next 10 years," the WEC presenters said, and they warned that assumption-driven reductions in "demand at risk" depend on on-time delivery of those resources.
WEC analysts stressed that 85% of the new planned capacity is solar, wind, battery or hybrid resources, and that the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest show some of the largest projected load increases (the Desert Southwest forecasted ~35% load growth in a recent WEC figure). The council emphasized uncertainty around project schedules: historically only a portion of resources planned for a year have come online in that same year (WEC cited 55% realized in a recent year), and a single year of under-build could undo multi-year adequacy gains.
WEC speakers also described work on 20-year scenarios and model limitations (energy storage modeling and long-range forecasting), and recommended improved data and modeling collaboration among balancing authorities to reduce uncertainty in long-term adequacy projections.
Provenance: - topicintro: {"block_id_start":"SEG 1920","block_id_end":"SEG 1920","evidence_excerpt":"The Western Assessment of Resource Adequacy is an annual report, and we're kind of in a really good time for this presentation right now...","reason_code":"topicintro"} - topicfinish: {"block_id_start":"SEG 2128","block_id_end":"SEG 2136","evidence_excerpt":"So that's just a really quick overview, of what we're seeing between the 2 assessments.","reason_code":"topicfinish"}
Speakers: ["Victoria Ravenscroft","Katie Rogers","WEC staff"]
Topics: [{"name":"interconnection_assessment","justification":"WEC assessment covers planned resources and risk across the Western interconnection.","scoring":{"topic_relevance":0.98,"depth_score":0.78,"opinionatedness":0.06,"controversy":0.30,"civic_salience":0.80,"impactfulness":0.85,"geo_relevance":0.85}}]
