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Independent finance review: district cautioned against overestimating ADA and state funding; projected revenue trimmed to $123.6M
Summary
Moat Casey consultant Lori Boswell presented an after-action finance review that attributed a revenue shortfall to overestimated attendance and legislative timing (HB2 changes); she said revised revenue projections place district receipts near $123.6 million versus a revised budget assumption of $128 million and recommended conservative budgeting and six-week monitoring.
Lori Boswell of consulting firm Moat Casey presented an after-action finance review requested by the superintendent that found the district’s revised budget relied on state funding assumptions tied to HB2 and earlier enrollment projections. Boswell said a July budget amendment increased projected revenue by roughly $8 million and expenditures by about $7.2 million, but that subsequent overestimation of ADA (attendance) and frozen levy taxable values produced a gap.
Boswell explained the mechanics: the state’s funding projections are based on enrollment/ADA estimates submitted in prior cycles and the district’s early budget amendment relied on limited modeling available immediately after the legislative session. As final attendance and property-value information matured, Boswell said the district’s adjusted revenue picture showed an expected revenue of about $123.6 million rather than the $128 million reflected in the revised budget.
She praised district cost containment measures — projected district spending is trending toward about $126 million rather than the earlier $129 million revision — and called the combination of enrollment projection errors, homestead-exemption changes and timing a "perfect storm." Boswell urged that the 2026–27 budget be built conservatively and that staff continue frequent monitoring of attendance and tax collections.
Boswell summarized: "You need to build your budgets on very, very conservative estimates," and she recommended ongoing six-week monitoring of PEIMS/ADA and tax receipts.
Speakers quoted in this article are drawn from SEG 1527–SEG 1990 and SEG 1842–SEG 1910.
