Waco ISD fall demographic update: Templeton projects a modest decline to about 12,500 students

Mr. Templeton presented the fall demographic report and opened with regional economic context, saying unemployment was hovering near 4% and that inflation and higher housing costs continue to be headwinds.

Templeton provided housing and development detail within the Waco ISD boundary and said the district is tracking about eight new subdivisions representing approximately 1,000 future lots plus roughly 480 multifamily units under construction and another 1,600 units in planning. On enrollment projections, he said, "We do think the district's enrollment could be trending down to about 12,500 students." Templeton flagged kindergarten as a key signal; he reported the current kindergarten count at 994 and said kindergarten is the first grade he watches as a leading indicator.

Templeton laid out the campus-level projections: several elementary campuses were projected in the 400—600 range, Bells Hill around 751 and Lake Eyre Montessori near 730; Tennyson was the largest middle school at 959 with the potential to reach about 1,000 before projected declines. He described the methodology used (geocoding student addresses, mapping housing activity, and advancing cohorts across grade levels) and recommended a five-year planning horizon to avoid frequent boundary changes.

Trustees asked whether new multifamily construction would bring students into the district; Templeton said housing pricing and unit types influence yield and that many planned multifamily units are lifestyle projects that typically produce fewer students per unit than tax-credit affordable housing.